Welcome to USA Best bet, where we bring you the best MLB picks for Thursday, June 29, 2023. In today’s slate of Major League Baseball games, there are plenty of opportunities to find value. I have analyzed the matchups and identified three best bet picks, including one Run Line (ATS Pick) and two Best Bet NRFI/YRFI plays. Our USA Best Bet experts hot streak continues with a 6-1-1 record this week.
Best Bet MLB Today
Best Bet MLB: San Diego Padres -1.5 over Pittsburgh Pirates (-114)
In the first pick of the day, I’m backing the San Diego Padres on the run line. Luis Ortiz, the Pittsburgh Pirates’ right-hander, has struggled this season, and Thursday’s matchup seems particularly unfavorable for him. Ortiz’s advanced metrics, such as xSLG, xERA, xwOBA, and strikeout percentage, are among the worst in the league. He has also struggled to miss bats, ranking in the bottom 5 percentile in xBA. I expect Ortiz to face more challenges against a Padres team determined to avoid a sweep. On the other side, Joe Musgrove’s strong metrics, including a 3.11 xERA and excellent hard-hit percentage, chase rate, and average exit velocity, make him a favorable choice for San Diego in what should be a routine victory.
Best Bet NRFI / YRFI
One of the quickest bets you can make in MLB is whether a run will be scored in the first inning. This market has gained popularity over time, and I’ve had success with my YRFI/NRFI plays, currently boasting a 6-1-1 record. Let’s keep the momentum going with two picks for Thursday.
Best MLB Bet: Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: NRFI (-125)
In this matchup at Citi Field between the Brewers and Mets, I’m going with the NRFI. Max Scherzer, the Mets’ starter, has had six excellent starts since returning from suspension, with only a couple of poor outings. His last start at home, where he struggled, was likely an anomaly. Facing a mediocre Brewers lineup, I don’t expect a repeat performance from Scherzer. Additionally, the Mets’ offense has underperformed, ranking 21st in SLG and 20th in OPS. Adrian Houser, the Brewers’ pitcher, has been solid in his last two road outings, allowing only one run. I anticipate a similar effort from him in this game.
Best MLB Bet: Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels: YRFI (-110)
For the second pick, we turn to the AL showdown between the White Sox and Angels. Both pitchers in this game are prone to giving up runs early on, making the YRFI a favorable choice. Lance Lynn, the White Sox starter, has been inconsistent this season, despite some recent improvements. He still holds an ERA of 6.40 and has surrendered 23 runs in his last five outings. Furthermore, Shohei Ohtani has had success against Lynn in the past. On the Angels’ side, Patrick Sandoval has an xERA of 4.59 and ranks in the bottom 15 percentile in xBA and strikeout percentage. Expect an early run to be scored in this game.
As we dive into today’s MLB games, these are my top picks for Thursday. The San Diego Padres on the run line, along with the NRFI in the Brewers vs. Mets game and the YRFI in the White Sox vs. Angels matchup, offer great opportunities for success. Don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for every game today. Let’s continue our winning streak and enjoy the action on the field!
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