Welcome to the USA Best Bet edition of Best Bet in MLB Baseball 04-11-2023. With all the Free MLB Picks from professional specialists for your best bets tonight. You could also consider playing these three best MLB bets consisting of ATS Run Line, Money Line and Totals Over/Unders picks as a best parlay play. Check our free MLB picks and parlay page if you are looking for bigger returns v increased risk.
Best Bet MLB for 04-11-2023: Minnesota Twins (-150) v Chicago White Sox – Twins Money Line Pick
In MLB Tonight he Minnesota Twins (6-4) face the Chicago White Sox (5-6) in the second game of their series, looking to even things up after a 4-3 loss in the first game. The White Sox might be without shortstop Tim Anderson, who left last night’s game with knee soreness. While Anderson’s injury doesn’t seem serious, his absence could affect Chicago’s offense against the Twins’ starting pitcher, Pablo Lopez.
Lopez has been impressive since joining Minnesota, allowing only one earned run in his first two starts. He’s in the 90th percentile or better in key stats like exit velocity, xBA, strikeout rate, and chase rate. Additionally, the Twins’ bullpen ranks third with a 3.41 xFIP. In contrast, the White Sox’s bullpen has struggled, posting a league-worst 7.45 ERA through almost 40 innings.
Chicago will rely on Lance Lynn, who has yet to provide any length in his two starts. Lynn was hit hard in his last outing, allowing eight earned runs in only 4.1 innings. The Twins have favorable matchups with their starter and bullpen tonight, and they’re likely to take advantage of it. The Twins’ money line is -150, which is a good bet to take.
Best Bet MLB for 04-11-2023: LA Dodgers vs. SF Giants – LA Dodgers to Win Run Line ATS Pick -1.5 (+100)
The Los Angeles Dodgers will face the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park after delivering a resounding 9-1 victory in the opening game of the series. The Dodgers’ offense was in top form and Urena delivered a solid pitching performance. Tonight, they will rely on Dustin May, who boasts an impressive 0.69 ERA and 0.62 WHIP through two starts. May is expected to have another great outing, especially against the Giants’ hitters, who have struggled this season.
On the other side of the mound, Alex Wood will pitch for the Giants. In his only start this year, Wood gave up 6 hits, 2 walks, and 3 runs in just 3 innings. Wood is prone to working around batters, which is a bad strategy against a Dodgers team that leads the league in walks with 60 and has the second-best OPS at .870. Moreover, Wood hangs pitches at a high rate, making him susceptible to the Dodgers’ powerful offense.
With Freddie Freeman leading the lineup hitting .419 with 1 HR and 2 RBI, backed by Mookie Betts, Will Smith, and breakout star James Outman, who is currently batting .300 with 3 HR and 9 RBI, the Dodgers have a formidable lineup that can put on a show tonight.
Dustin May’s current form and body of work make him a reliable choice, while Wood’s questionable performance raises concerns. Expect the Dodgers to dominate the Giants tonight, as they continue to prove why they are one of the most efficient offenses in the league.
Best Bet MLB Tonight ATS Run Line Pick: LA Dodgers Run Line ATS -1.5 (+100) available at publishing. Expert pick playable to -120.
Best Bet MLB for 04-11-2023: Run Line ATS Pick KC Royals v TEX Rangers (-130)
The Kansas City Royals have started the season slowly, ranking last in the league for runs scored. Their 11-2 loss to the Texas Rangers in the series opener highlighted their offensive struggles, and until they improve, they are likely to face challenges. In contrast, the Rangers aim to climb in the AL West and this series presents an opportunity for them to do so. They currently rank fifth in runs scored and sixth in ERA, indicating their strength.
The Royals will start with Jordan Lyles, a pitcher who is considered a filler arm in the majors, and who has lost both of his games this season. In contrast, Texas has Jacob deGrom leading their rotation, and despite losing his first two starts, he has shown promise with 18 strikeouts in just nine innings. This creates a favorable matchup for the Rangers tonight.
While some MLB lines for tonight’s games are large, the Rangers on the money line are not a recommended play. However, given the favorable matchup against a struggling Royals team, the Rangers on the run line (-1.5, -130) is a viable option.
Best Bet MLB Tonight – ATS Run line MLB Pick: Texas -1.5 (-130) is available at the time of publishing and playable at that number.
Best Bet MLB for 04-11-2023: MIL Brewers v ARI Diamondbacks – Run Line Pick MIL Brewers -1.5 (+128)
The Arizona Diamondbacks won the series opener against the Milwaukee Brewers with a 3-0 shutout, but they face a tough task repeating that feat against an explosive Brewers lineup. The Brewers boast five batters hitting over .300, and they are tied for sixth in the league for drawing walks, making them a dangerous offensive team.
Merrill Kelly will take the mound for the Diamondbacks, but his tendency to allow walks could be costly against a team like the Brewers. Kelly has started two games this season and has a 3.86 ERA and 1.82 WHIP through 9.1 innings with 8 strikeouts. However, his BB/9 and K/9 ratios are both 7.71, meaning that he has walked a batter for every strikeout he has pitched.
On the other hand, the Brewers will send Corbin Burnes to the mound, who has struggled in his first two starts this season with a 9.64 ERA and 1.71 WHIP through 9.1 innings. However, Burnes is an elite pitching talent with the ability to bounce back and remind everyone of his potential.
Overall, the Brewers are a strong offensive team and have the edge on the mound with Burnes. The Diamondbacks may have a hot lineup, but they are not reliable enough to overcome the Brewers.
Best Bet MLB Tonight – Run Line ATS Pick: Therefore, the best bet for this matchup is the MIL Brewers -1.5 (+128) run line, which is available at the time of publishing and playable to +100.
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To add more excitement and potentially increase profits in MLB betting, ATS or Run Line picks can be a great option. This type of betting involves not just predicting which team will win but also by what margin of runs. When placing an ATS bet, the bettor considers not only the winner but also the number of runs by which the team will win or lose.
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