Best MLB Bet 07-03-2023: Expert Picks Today

MLB Best Bet for today - Free Picks and Parlay in Betting

Welcome to USA Best Bets for today’s 10-game MLB slate, featuring a couple of afternoon games and some great expert picks. MLB Monday 07-03-2023 gets started early with the first pitch in Texas at 2:05 pm ET, while the Pirates and Dodgers conclude the slate at 10:10 pm ET. Our top MLB player prop bets highlight the Braves’ young stud pitchers Bryce Elder and Matt McLain, but don’t forget to check out our MLB picks and parlays for all of today’s games.

Best MLB Bet YRFI & NRFI: Our expert is on a 9-2-1 run!

With numerous MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is whether a run will be scored in the first inning (YRFI/NRFI). This market has gained popularity over time, offering value and a shorter duration. I’m currently on a 9-2-1 run with my YRFI/NRFI plays, so let’s keep the momentum going! Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB pick for every game today. This Monday, I have only one YRFI/NRFI bets that I like, but that’s all we need.

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees: NRFI (-125)

For my first pick on Monday’s slate, I’m taking the NRFI in the matchup between the Orioles and Yankees. After Domingo German threw the first perfect game in 11 years, it’s hard to imagine what he can do for an encore. However, regression is likely for him, especially against a stronger lineup like the Baltimore Orioles. In the first inning, I don’t see German giving up runs, considering the struggles of the top four hitters in the Orioles lineup against him. German has performed well at home this season, and I expect that trend to continue.

Tyler Wells, the Orioles’ starter, has been consistently impressive, allowing two runs or less in each of his last six outings. Expect a quick opening frame in the Bronx on Monday.

Best MLB Player Prop Bets for Today, 7/3: All-Star Bryce Elder shines

Bryce Elder (Braves) to record a win (+110)

In a matchup between two of the top-hitting teams against right-handed pitchers (RHP), the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves travel to Cleveland to take on the AL Central-leading Guardians. We focus on Bryce Elder, but we should also keep an eye on RHP Gavin Williams, who is making his third start in the MLB.

Williams struggled in his first outing against the Oakland Athletics, with only four strikeouts, three walks, and four earned runs. However, he bounced back impressively against the Kansas City Royals, shutting them out through seven innings. The books expect Williams to struggle tonight, setting his earned run prop at 3.5, while Elder’s prop is set at 2.5 with juice on the under.

Elder, recently announced as an All-Star for the National League, is riding a wave of success. He has allowed only three earned runs in his last three starts and has consistently pitched deep into games. He has gone beyond six innings in 11 of his 16 starts and has recorded a win in three of his last five starts.

With one of the best offenses in baseball hitting RHP at a .313 clip in the last 30 days and boasting a league-leading on-base percentage of .377, all eyes will be on the Braves. Let’s hope Elder hands the ball off with a lead to one of the best bullpens in baseball and cashes in our top MLB player prop bet.

Matt McLain (Reds) over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-140)

Choosing which Cincinnati Reds hitter to back against RHP Jake Irvin is a tough decision, but I’m going with Matt McLain. The Reds have been hitting righties well in the last two weeks with an average of .279, and McLain has contributed significantly with a .324 average during that span. McLain occupies the two-hole in the Reds’ lineup ahead of Jonathan India and Elly Da La Cruz, both of whom perform better against RHP than LHP.

Jake Irvin hasn’t been terrible in his first season in the big leagues for the Nationals, but he lacks strikeout stuff and struggles to induce chases from hitters, ranking in the bottom 3rd percentile in chase rate. McLain drew two walks yesterday but failed to score with India and Cruz going hitless. Look for not only McLain but the entire order to come out firing after a lackluster day at the plate.

(Line available at Sportsbook at the time of publishing.)

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