This will be a close one, so our March Madness Experts Best Bet Today would pivot to Baylor under 13.5 points. As we trudge on into the All-Star break, the Spurs’ roster remains somewhat depleted after their mini COVID hiatus. They are likely to be without a few key rotation pieces tonight versus Oklahoma City (Derrick White, Rudy Gay, and potentially LaMarcus Aldridge). However, I still see this line for Walker as too high. The third-year guard is averaging a combined 16.1 PRA this season, staying under this total in 21 of 29 games. Even in games where he’s played at least 30 minutes, he’s stayed under this total in six of ten. Making this our best bet.
He’s not the most efficient scorer, shooting 40% from the field. 70% of his shot attempts have been via his jump shot, of which he’s only converting at 36%.
The Thunder allow the opposition the eighth-fewest effective field-goal percentage this season, as well as the fourth-lowest three-point percentage. In games versus other teams in the top ten of eFG% defense, Walker has stayed under this total in nine of 13, while averaging 15 PRA. In general, the Thunder allow the third-fewest average PRA to opposing wing players (shooting guards and small forwards).
Despite the depleted roster, Walker still is only the fifth-highest usage player in the rotation tonight (and potentially sixth, if Aldridge plays). In a game with a total sitting below 220 (low by today’s standards), I see Walker lacking the opportunity and struggling to stay efficient.
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