MLB Best Bet 06-28-2023: Expert Picks Today
Welcome to USA Best Bet expert picks for MLB today on June 28th, 2023. Get ready for another exciting day of MLB baseball betting as we dive into the action on June 28th, 2023. Today’s slate features a full lineup of games, including some thrilling afternoon matchups.
Highlights from Yesterday’s Games
Let’s take a look back at yesterday’s games, where Shohei Ohtani once again showcased his exceptional skills for the Angels. The Marlins secured an impressive 10-1 victory over the Red Sox, while the A’s caused an upset by defeating the Yankees 2-1. USA Best Bet expert team had another successful day with the picks, going 2-1 on Best Bets and 1-0 on MLB props.
Today’s Schedule
Get ready for another action-packed day of MLB baseball on June 28th, 2023, with a full slate of 15 games scheduled. The excitement begins early with a 12:20 pm ET game between the Twins and Braves, airing on MLB Network. Don’t miss out on any of today’s MLB best bet picks.
Best Bet of the Day: Tampa Bay Rays ML over Arizona Diamondbacks (-146) at 9:40 pm ET
Our best bet of the day is backing the Tampa Bay Rays to secure a victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Rays will rely on starting pitcher Zach Eflin, who boasts a solid 3.35 ERA and an impressive 1.03 WHIP. Eflin’s strong performance is supported by his high percentiles in various statistical categories. While the Diamondbacks possess talent, their starting pitcher, Zach Davies, has struggled this season with a 1-4 record, a 7.82 ERA, and a 1.82 WHIP. Davies ranks near the bottom of the league in most categories, making the Rays the favorable pick for this matchup.
MLB Best Bet NRFI / YRFI Picks
For those seeking shorter-lasting bets, the NRFI (No Run First Inning) and YRFI (Run First Inning) options provide quick outcomes, requiring only six outs to determine the bet’s fate. These bets often offer attractive odds and allow bettors to avoid the tension of waiting for a full game result. Let’s explore the NRFI and YRFI picks for today’s games.
MLB Best Bet: San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: NRFI (-125)
In this matchup, we have Blake Snell, who has been resembling his Cy Young form from 2018 in recent performances. Snell has been outstanding, allowing only 2 earned runs in his last 36 innings, resulting in an exceptional 0.50 ERA since mid-May. His opponents have struggled to hit against him, with a .139 batting average and a .169 expected batting average (xBA). Snell’s 41% strikeout rate and 26% hard-hit rate surpass his season averages. Facing a struggling Pirates offense with a June wRC+ of just 73, Snell is poised to dominate. Key Pirates hitters, such as Ke’Bryan Hayes, Andrew McCutchen, and Connor Joe, have struggled against Snell in their careers, further supporting the NRFI pick.
MLB Best Bet: Cincinnati Reds vs. Baltimore Orioles: YRFI (-113)
Luke Weaver has emerged as one of the weakest first-inning pitchers in MLB. In 12 starts, Weaver has recorded a staggering 14.25 ERA in the opening frame. Opponents have tormented him, batting .424 with a .470 on-base percentage, .712 slugging percentage, and a 1.182 OPS in the first inning. Weaver’s struggles have been particularly evident in recent starts, where he has allowed multiple first-inning runs. Facing a potent Orioles lineup, including hitters like Austin Hays, Adley Rutschman, and Anthony Santander, Weaver is likely to face significant challenges. On the other side, the Reds’ Kyle Gibson has been susceptible in
the first inning, allowing a .286 batting average and a .754 OPS. With key Reds hitters holding favorable matchups against Gibson, at least one team is expected to score in the opening frame.
MLB Best Bet: San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates First 3 Innings (F3) Under 2.5 (-120)
Blake Snell has been experiencing a resurgence reminiscent of his Cy Young-winning form in 2018. Over his last 36 innings, Snell has allowed a mere 2 earned runs, resulting in an exceptional 0.50 ERA since mid-May. These impressive numbers are not simply a result of luck, as Snell has held opponents to a minuscule .139 batting average and a .169 expected batting average (xBA) during this stretch. Additionally, he boasts an impressive 41% strikeout rate and a low 26% hard-hit rate, both significantly better than his season averages. Snell’s improved control and overall performance indicate that he is no longer the same pitcher who struggled with a 5.30 ERA in April.
In Wednesday’s game, Snell will face a Pirates offense that has also undergone significant changes since April, but unfortunately not in a positive way. As of Tuesday’s game, the Pirates have displayed a lackluster 73 wRC+ in June, ranking 29th in baseball. This offensive decline makes them even more vulnerable against Snell’s dominant pitching.
On the other side of the matchup, Mitch Keller has been impressive when pitching at home. Pittsburgh’s top pitcher boasts a 4-1 record with a stellar 2.78 ERA and a remarkable 0.949 WHIP in seven starts at PNC Park this season. Opposing batters have struggled mightily, managing just a .195 batting average and a .569 OPS against Keller in these home games. Additionally, in their initial encounters with Keller, hitters have recorded a .220 average with a significant 34% strikeout rate. Keller’s formidable presence on the mound will pose a challenge to a Padres lineup that has notably underperformed this season.
Considering the offensive struggles of both teams, particularly in the early innings, it is prudent to avoid the middle and later innings where they tend to do the majority of their damage. Therefore, a sensible approach would be to bet on the under for the first three innings of the game, as it is likely to be a low-scoring affair.
Conclusion
Get ready for a thrilling day of MLB baseball action on June 28th, 2023. The Tampa Bay Rays are our top pick of the day, backed by Zach Eflin’s impressive performance. If you prefer shorter-lasting bets, consider the NRFI pick in the San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates game, with Blake Snell showcasing his dominant form. For a YRFI play, focus on the Cincinnati Reds vs. Baltimore Orioles matchup, as Luke Weaver’s struggles in the first inning make runs likely. Enjoy the games and don’t miss out on our other MLB picks for the day!
MLB Parlay Tonight?
We love a good parlay bet, and for tonight’s MLB Parlay, we recommend bundling up our Best Bet of the Day with the Cincinnati Reds vs. Baltimore Orioles YRFI and the San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates F3 picks.
MLB Picks and Parlay Tonight?
We do love a good parlay bet, and there is probably nothing better than bundling up a few of these best bet picks. We are choosing the Best Bet of the Day Tampa Bay Rays ML win to anchor the MLB Parlay, then add Cincinnati Reds vs. Baltimore Orioles YRFI, and San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates F3 to get the value in our bet today.
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