MLB Best Bet Picks Today 07-05-2023: We are 10-3 from last 13 bets
Welcome to USA Best Bets, where we bring you expert picks and betting action for today’s MLB slate. After an exciting day of games on America’s Independence Day, we are back with three best bets to brighten up your Wednesday. With 15 MLB games on the schedule, including matchups like Orioles vs Yankees, Mets vs Diamondbacks, and A’s vs Tigers on FS1, there is plenty of action to look forward to. Today, I will be focusing on games in Detroit and Boston for my top picks. So, let’s dive into my MLB best bets for Wednesday, and don’t forget to check out our MLB Parlay Picks for all the games on the schedule.
Best Bet of the Day
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-120) over Pittsburgh Pirates – 10:10 pm ET MLB
Bobby Miller has a golden opportunity to bounce back from a couple of disappointing outings. Despite those recent struggles, Miller showcased his brilliance in his first four starts at the Major League level, boasting an impressive 0.78 ERA. Furthermore, his expected ERA (xERA) suggests that his actual ERA could be even lower. With the Pittsburgh Pirates ranking 24th in slugging percentage (SLG) and on-base plus slugging (OPS) this season, it’s reasonable to anticipate positive regression and a commanding performance from the talented Dodgers pitcher on his home turf.
While the Dodgers’ offense has displayed sporadic bursts of power lately, they typically deliver consistent production from the top of their lineup on most nights. Facing Pirates starter Luis Ortiz, who finds himself in the bottom 5 percentile in expected batting average (xBA), expected ERA (xERA), expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA), expected slugging percentage (xSLG), and strikeout percentage, the Dodgers’ formidable lineup should have a field day. If Los Angeles performs up to its potential, this contest has all the makings of a lopsided victory.
Oakland Athletics First 5 Innings Team Total Under 1.5 (-115) MLB
We all know that the Athletics are not a good baseball team, but did you know that it could get worse? That’s right, a team with a 24-63 record can get even worse. The reason is simple: they can’t hit lefties. Since June 1, the A’s have a 49 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Keep in mind that a 100 wRC+ is average, so Oakland is severely below average. But besides ranking 30th in wRC+ against southpaws in that time, they also rank 30th in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, and more.
Their struggles against lefties were put on full display last night as Tarik Skubal made his season debut and threw 4 no-hit innings and struck out 6 Oakland hitters. The lefty on the hill for the Tigers is Eduardo Rodriguez, a 30-year-old lefty returning after missing a month of action. E-Rod injured his finger at the end of May and hasn’t thrown an MLB pitch since May 28, but he did make one rehab start in preparation for tonight. That Minor League assignment went exactly how you would expect: 4.1 innings of scoreless baseball with only 3 hits allowed.
But even when he was in the Majors, Rodriguez was fantastic. He had a 1.72 ERA in April and then a 2.03 ERA in May, so he’s been the most consistent piece of Detroit’s pitching staff (until he got
hurt, that is). And at home, E-Rod has a 1.65 ERA and is allowing just a .185 batting average with a .231 on-base percentage. The A’s might score one lucky run against him, but I doubt they can do it twice.
Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox First 3 Innings Under 3.5 (-134) 2u MLB
Don’t be scared off by the high total, the starting pitching matchup is fantastic. Jon Gray gets the start for the Rangers and Brayan Bello will counter him from the Red Sox, and I’m all over the first 3 innings under. I’ve been targeting Bello in the first 3 innings for the last few weeks, which has quickly turned into an ATM. The first 3 innings under is 6-1 in Bello’s last 7 starts, and the only loss came by half a run.
Before we dive into the analysis, the reason I take the first 3 innings under compared to the first 5 innings or the full game is simple. The first 5 innings under encompasses the entire lineup facing Bello twice, which is something I’m trying to avoid. Bello is allowing a .208 batting average the first time through the order, but it increases to .250 the second time. And the full game under is easy — I hate the Red Sox bullpen since it’s essentially a Triple-A pen with Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin.
Back to tonight, we’re in for a treat. Bello has a 2.33 ERA in his last 11 starts, which includes facing the Rays, Braves, Reds, Blue Jays, Angels, Marlins, and more. But Bello hasn’t just been good — he’s been great. He’s allowed more than 2 earned runs just once in that 11-start span. Bello is also coming off one of his best months in the show as the right-hander had a 2.14 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP in 5 starts in June. In those 5 outings, Bello allowed just a .174 batting average with a .198 xBA and just a 30% hard-hit rate. His 57.4% ground-ball percentage paired with his excellent command is a perfect combination against this potent Rangers lineup.
Bello isn’t the only reason I like this under, though, and that’s because Gray is on the hill for Texas. The veteran has been a reliable arm for the Rangers this season, but something that stands out to me is his home and away splits. In Arlington, Gray has a 4.27 ERA with a 1.252 WHIP and a .252 batting average allowed. However, on the road, the veteran has a 1.99 ERA, a 0.885 WHIP, and a .180 batting average allowed. In his last 4 road starts, Gray has allowed 3 total runs in the first 3 innings.
FanDuel has this total at 3.5, which I think is modern-day theft, but if you can only get 2.5, I’d play this at 1 unit instead of 2.
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