MLB Best Bets 08-12-2023: Expert Picks Today
Welcome to USA Best Bet for the Saturday MLB lineup presents an extensive 16-game schedule, notable for a unique occurrence involving the Braves and Mets engaging in a doubleheader clash at Citi Field in New York. The intriguing aspect of this day’s baseball action stems from three games showcased regionally on FOX, with an additional match exhibited on FS1. This substantial baseball spectacle opens up numerous opportunities to delve into our Best Bets for today and YRFI/NRFI pick wagers.
MLB Best Bet Today
MLB Pick: Pirates’ Recent Run and Reds’ Strong Start
In the past week, the Pirates have been causing quite a stir among bettors, leaving a lasting mark on scorecards. They split 4-game showdowns with both the Braves and the Brewers before entering the current series against Cincinnati. Their losses, even when they occurred, were often by a slim margin, causing setbacks for those who bet on the run line. In contrast, the Reds had a smoother experience last night, as they powered their way past the Pirates with a commanding 9-2 victory. The notable aspect was that neither team tapped into their superior bullpen resources, granting a well-deserved break to units that had recently shouldered substantial workloads. It’s highly likely that these bullpen arms will take the stage tonight. Should the game witness a scarcity of early runs and maintain a close contest, a live bet favoring the under could emerge as an appealing option.
MLB Pick: Narrow Margins and Pitching Duel
In terms of odds, this matchup is nearly a coin toss. Despite the Pirates’ recent form, I’m inclined to favor the Reds to secure the win. Particularly in the early innings, I see the Reds gaining an edge. This advantage is reinforced by the presence of Brandon Williamson on the mound for Cincinnati. Barring a rough outing in Chicago, a common occurrence since the All-Star break, Williamson has consistently delivered 5 to 6 innings of work with a maximum of 2 runs across 4 out of his last 5 starts. In contrast, the Pirates are opting for a bullpen-driven strategy. Thomas Hatch is slated as the primary pitcher, but he pitched 4 innings against the Braves just 48 hours ago. While I doubt a repetition of that usage, it’s possible this could be the plan in Pittsburgh. Hatch’s prior appearance was his debut for the Pirates, having previously functioned as a conventional bullpen arm in Toronto. The decision to move him before the trade deadline while Toronto was embroiled in a playoff chase doesn’t inspire immense confidence. Expecting a briefer appearance from Hatch tonight, the Pirates’ bullpen is likely to become a collaborative effort. In the initial innings, the Reds seem poised for an advantage. Backed by a well-rested bullpen, they’re striving to sidestep any potential late-game collapses.
MLB Pick_Reds ML: Favored Selection
The Reds’ moneyline (-105) is a favorable choice at the time of this publication, with a playability extending to -120. This prediction considers the Reds’ stronger start and overall pitching dynamics, indicating a promising outcome despite the Pirates’ recent performance.
*Please note that while I have maintained the style and format as requested, this is a simulated rewrite and not actual betting advice.
MLB Pick: Astros vs. Angels Clash in Spotlight
One of the marquee matchups being showcased on Fox tonight is the face-off between the Astros and the Angels. Currently, the Astros find themselves trailing the Rangers by a margin of 2.5 games in the AL West standings. However, their position in the wild-card standings offers them a degree of comfort. The situation is markedly different for the Angels, a team facing a distressing predicament. Despite their efforts to bolster their roster with some seasoned albeit unremarkable hitters at the trade deadline, the Angels have seen their standing deteriorate while Mike Trout, frustratingly, remains benched with a bat he can’t wield. With this context, I’m inclined to favor the Astros for Saturday night.
Previous Encounter and Pitching Showdown
In the previous clash, the Astros convincingly triumphed over the Angels with a commanding 11-3 scoreline. For their redemption attempt, the Angels will entrust Tyler Anderson to halt their slide. Anderson has demonstrated effectiveness as a starter, particularly in recent outings. However, it’s essential to note that the Astros boast the sixth-highest batting average against left-handed pitchers and the fourth-highest slugging percentage. This poses a formidable challenge for Anderson.
On the opposing side, the ball will be handed to J.P. France. His 2.75 ERA might raise eyebrows, but his consistent performance substantiates it. Despite experiencing arguably his weakest outing in recent weeks against these very Angels, where he failed to complete five innings, the Astros have emerged victorious in seven consecutive starts where France was on the mound. Within this stretch, he has conceded more than two earned runs only on one occasion. The prospects look promising for Houston this evening. The Astros appear to possess a multitude of advantages, extending to the bullpen. Unfortunately for the Angels, their bullpen has been susceptible to a series of collapses as of late. This might shape up to be a challenging evening for the Angels. While endorsing the Astros comes with a premium price, my inclination is towards their victory.
MLB Pick_Astros ML: Favored Choice
The Astros’ moneyline (-165) is available at the time of this release and holds its appeal at that figure. My assessment leans towards the Astros’ victory, considering their advantageous position across various aspects of the game.
Please note that while I have maintained the style and format as requested, this is a simulated rewrite and not actual betting advice.
MLB Picks: YRFI & NRFI Selections
Within the realm of baseball betting, the YRFI/NRFI market has surged in popularity. This is largely attributed to the instant gratification that accompanies these wagers; gone are the days of waiting for three hours to see whether your bet materializes. The focus here is laser-targeted on the opening inning – a concise, impactful battleground.
Highlighted MLB YRFI/NRFI Plays for Saturday
Below are my favored YRFI/NRFI prospects for Saturday’s slate, alongside the broader selection of our MLB picks.
MLB Pick_Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays: NRFI (-128)
Anticipate an enthralling pitching duel as Justin Steele of the Chicago Cubs squares off against Chris Bassitt of the Toronto Blue Jays. In 2023, Steele’s prowess has been nothing short of remarkable, boasting a 13-3 record, complemented by a 2.68 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. His recent track record features four consecutive clean opening innings. Meanwhile, Bassitt carries an 11-6 record, coupled with a 3.87 ERA. His most recent performance included an impressive 7.0 innings of one-run baseball against Boston.
The offensive vigor in the initial inning from both teams isn’t particularly imposing. The Cubs rank 22nd in MLB with an average of 0.46 runs scored during the first inning. When away from home, this figure dwindles further to a feeble 0.35. Equally, the Blue Jays’ prowess in the opening frame is underwhelming, sitting at 26th place in the league with a mere 0.42 runs per contest. Although Cody Bellinger holds a 1-for-3 record against Bassitt, featuring a home run, the remainder of the lineups have yet to make a substantial impact in this interleague matchup. With this in mind, I’m inclined to favor the NRFI.
MLB Pick_Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies: NRFI (+100)
Securing the NRFI at favorable plus-odds, even if just on the cusp, is an enticing prospect, particularly in a game set to feature Minnesota’s Pablo Lopez and Philadelphia’s Taijuan Walker on the mound. Throughout the current year, Lopez boasts a 3.81 ERA, coupled with a 1.10 WHIP. His performance in August has showcased a commendable 2-0 record with a remarkable 0.69 ERA. Walker, on the other hand, touts a 13-4 record alongside a 3.98 ERA and 1.26 WHIP.
Despite the Phillies amassing 13 runs on Friday, concerns about a repeat performance against Lopez are largely unfounded. After all, Lopez has surrendered a solitary first-inning run across his last 12 starts. Walker’s generosity in the early innings is slightly more pronounced, yet the Twins’ lineup has struggled to make a significant impact against him. Carlos Correa, for instance, holds a 2-for-12 record against Walker. Given this matchup, the NRFI appears to carry substantial value.
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