Welcome to USA Best Bet and our experts free MLB Picks and Parlay for today 06-29-2023: Thursday’s 12-game slate of Major League Baseball. There’s plenty of value to be found across the board, and I’ve analyzed today’s games to provide you with three picks that combine for a +688 payout at KasinoBets Sportsbook. Don’t forget to check out our MLB predictions for all the games, but for now, let’s dive into our MLB mega parlay for Thursday.
#1 MLB Pick: Houston Astros vs. St. Louis Cardinals Over 9.5 (-104)
To start off our mega parlay, I’m selecting the over in the matchup between the Astros and Cardinals. The Astros have struggled with consistency this season, mainly due to their pitching rotation. J.P. France, the Astros’ starter, has been decent on paper with a 3.54 ERA on the year. However, his xERA of 4.38 and below-average advanced metrics suggest regression is on the horizon. On the Cardinals’ side, veteran Adam Wainwright is having a forgettable season with a 6.56 ERA and a 6.82 xERA. Given Wainwright’s recent struggles, I expect runs to be scored frequently in this game.
#2 MLB Free Pick: San Diego Padres -1.5 over Pittsburgh Pirates (-114)
For the second leg of our parlay, I’m backing the San Diego Padres on the run line. Luis Ortiz, the Pirates’ pitcher, has been a prime candidate to fade this season. Ortiz’s advanced metrics, including xSLG, xERA, xwOBA, and strikeout percentage, are among the worst in the league. He’s also struggling to miss bats, ranking in the 5th percentile in xBA at .292. I anticipate Ortiz facing more difficulties against a Padres team determined to avoid a sweep. On the other side, Joe Musgrove’s strong metrics, such as a 3.11 xERA and excellent hard-hit percentage, chase rate, and average exit velocity, bode well for San Diego in what should be a routine victory.
#3 MLB Free Pick: New York Mets -1.5 over Milwaukee Brewers (+112)
To close out our free MLB Picks and Parlay bet, I’m selecting the New York Mets on the run line. Despite their season-long struggles, this game presents an opportunity for the Mets to bounce back with their ace, Max Scherzer, on the mound. Scherzer has mostly pitched like his usual self since returning from his suspension earlier this season. With only three runs allowed in his last 14 innings pitched and a xERA of 3.45, positive regression seems likely for Scherzer. Additionally, the Mets’ offense should be able to produce against Adrian Houser, who has struggled on the road. Let’s back the Mets to win by at least two runs on Thursday.
In summary, these are our USA Best Bet expert MLB Parlay picks for Thursday’s games. We’re taking the over in the Astros vs. Cardinals matchup, the San Diego Padres on the run line against the Pittsburgh Pirates, and the New York Mets on the run line versus the Milwaukee Brewers. By combining these three picks, you can take advantage of the +688 payout at FanDuel Sportsbook. Good luck with your wagers!
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