Welcome to another USA Best Bet in Basketball edition for today 06-01-2023: It’s a huge night in the basketball season as our experts gear up with free best bet picks for today’s Game 1 of the 2023 NBA Finals between the Miami Heat and the Denver Nuggets. Tip-off is set for 8:30 pm ET on ABC. With a 5-0-2 record our experts last 3 NBA Best Bets articles, let’s try to find some more winners together, remember your USA Best Bet picks for better betting today.
Expert NBA Picks for Today’s Game 1: Heat vs Nuggets
Best Bet in NBA Today: Heat +9 (-110)
In Game 1 of the NBA Finals, the Denver Nuggets will host the Miami Heat. The Nuggets last played on May 22, completing a sweep of the Lakers, while Miami needed 7 games to advance after surrendering a 3-0 series lead to the Boston Celtics. Denver has dominated Miami in their recent matchups, winning and covering the spread in 9 of their last 10 meetings. The only game that Miami won and covered was in the bubble back in August 2020.
The Nuggets possess the most consistent offense that Miami has faced in this postseason, averaging 116.4 points per game on 49% shooting and 38.6% from beyond the arc. Additionally, Denver holds a significant advantage in rebounding and points in the paint, outscoring Miami by 10 on the season.
While oddsmakers have set a large number, Denver is certainly capable of covering it, especially on their home court. However, there’s only one game script that leads to a cover, and that’s a blowout victory for the Nuggets. We’ve witnessed similar scenarios in the postseason, where trailing teams make a late push in the early fourth quarter but eventually give up and rest their starters by the 8-minute mark. However, if Miami’s three-point shooting continues at a 39% clip, it’s difficult to imagine them not staying competitive in this game. The Heat have had three days in Denver to adjust to the altitude, and it feels like a situation where Miami will continue to surprise everyone and keep the game close. While I don’t think Miami will win, the point spread is too high for me to back Denver. Therefore, I’m taking the Heat plus the points.
Check out our Heat vs Nuggets Same Game Parlay.
Best Bet in NBA Today: Over 218.5 points (-110)
The Nuggets have been one of the highest-scoring teams in the NBA this postseason, excluding the Bucks who played only five games and had one high-scoring 138-point game. The Miami Heat have won all three of their previous Game 1s with high-scoring and great shooting performances. Denver’s defense is statistically similar to Boston’s, and if they allow Miami to hit a lot of threes, this game should be high-scoring.
Oddsmakers initially set the total around 219, which I felt was slightly low. There might be some “let down” factored into that line for the Heat after an emotional Game 7 against Boston. Additionally, the Nuggets have been off for nine days, raising the “rest vs rust” factor. However, I don’t expect these factors to come into play significantly. If Miami reaches around 105 points, I believe this total will go over. If Denver builds a large lead, the pace may slow down, leading to a scenario where the game goes under. I anticipate the Heat showing up in the opener and contributing to pushing this total over.
Best Bet in NBA Basketball Free Expert Picks 06-01-2023
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